NFL Strategy Breakdown - DraftKings Week 9 Thursday Night Showdown
Summary
$500K was the top prize for last night's biggest Thursday Night Football showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Houston Texans. The Eagles were heavily favored and as expected we saw lineups favor starting Eagles players. However, the Texans played a decent game, and starting a mix of Texans and Eagles was the winning strategy.
117,647 entries were submitted. The contest has an expected value of ($2.25) per lineup with 21.15% of lineups cashing.
Winning Lineup
The top prize was shared between 12 entrants, each taking home $61,083.34. The lineup had a split of 3.5 Eagles to 3 Texans, total ownership of 199%, and used $49,700 of salary.
- CPT - Dallas Goedert - TE - PHI
- FLEX - Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
- FLEX - Davis Mills - QB - HOU
- FLEX - Dameon Price - RB - HOU
- FLEX - Chris Moore - WR - HOU
- FLEX - Kenneth Gainwell - RB - PHI
Team Split
The Eagles were favored by 14 points, so I'm sure it won't surprise anybody that 86% of the field started more Eagles than Texans.
But the Eagles spread the ball around pretty well and the Texans looked competent at times last night, so the best performing lineups of the night had a pretty even split between Eagles and Texans.
| HOU | PHI | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.27% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
| 1.0 | 5.5 | 26.08% | 11.13% | ($11.95) |
| 1.5 | 5.0 | 1.53% | 7.33% | ($12.94) |
| 2.0 | 4.5 | 35.29% | 26.36% | ($7.44) |
| 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.60% | 31.71% | ($6.49) |
| 3.0 | 3.5 | 17.20% | 25.90% | $29.85 |
| 3.5 | 3.0 | 7.21% | 23.32% | ($7.33) |
| 4.0 | 2.5 | 2.57% | 12.57% | ($5.69) |
| 4.5 | 2.0 | 3.76% | 15.49% | ($7.77) |
| 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.10% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
| 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.38% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
Captained Positions
Quarterbacks were the favorite captain position of the night (Hurts 28.4%, Mills 2.5%), followed pretty closely by running backs and wide receivers.
But it was Philly tight end Dallas Goedert who stole the show last night, making bank for the 5.5% of lineups who had him in the captain spot.
| Position | Lineup % | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 30.98% | 24.03% | ($8.17) |
| RB | 27.32% | 17.04% | ($10.03) |
| WR | 21.61% | 12.36% | ($11.36) |
| DST | 11.17% | 10.72% | ($12.26) |
| TE | 7.30% | 70.51% | $96.72 |
| K | 1.35% | 6.73% | ($13.27) |
Positions Played
Quarterbacks
Hurts was started in a massive 92.5% of lineups, with Mills coming in at 20.3% ownership. The contest winner started both QBs.
| QB Started | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 4.52% | 9.92% | ($12.26) |
| 1.0 | 53.57% | 20.42% | ($8.76) |
| 1.5 | 24.31% | 25.40% | ($7.92) |
| 2.0 | 10.92% | 21.11% | $50.64 |
| 2.5 | 6.66% | 19.07% | ($9.05) |
| 3.0 | 0.01% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
| 3.5 | 0.01% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
| 4.0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
Kickers
Most lineups faded both kickers, and that turned out to be the right call. Fairbairn scored just 5 points, Elliot scored 3.
| K Started | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 64.72% | 22.98% | $1.98 |
| 1.0 | 30.47% | 19.72% | ($9.44) |
| 1.5 | 1.09% | 8.35% | ($12.86) |
| 2.0 | 3.46% | 4.64% | ($13.75) |
| 2.5 | 0.26% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
Defenses
The Eagles D cam in at 37.8% ownership (10.7% CPT) despite the massive $7,000 price tag. Most lineups faded both defenses, which ended up being the right call.
| DST Started | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 59.44% | 25.65% | $3.74 |
| 1.0 | 28.26% | 16.26% | ($10.48) |
| 1.5 | 10.41% | 10.55% | ($12.30) |
| 2.0 | 1.14% | 8.64% | ($12.76) |
| 2.5 | 0.75% | 13.01% | ($11.75) |
Salary Utilization
- 6.68% of lineups used all $50,000 in salary
- 49.09% of lineups used at least $49,500 of salary.
- The top lineup of the night spent $49,700 of salary.
Entry Ownership
The top performing lineup of the night was on the more contrarian side, coming in at 199% total ownership.
Players to Love and Hate
Goedert's solid night made contestants a cool $745k on the night. Chris Moore was the only Houston pass catcher that paid off. Gainwell significantly outperformed Sanders when you take salary and ownership into account.
| Player | Total Earnings | Earnings / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | $745,828.31 | $14.89 | 42.57% | 21.04% | 27 |
| Chris Moore | $688,259.37 | $33.81 | 17.30% | 5.65% | 14.5 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | $680,549.80 | $75.22 | 7.69% | 2.01% | 12.8 |
| Davis Mills | $547,160.00 | $22.97 | 20.25% | 3.99% | 13.96 |
| Dameon Pierce | $309,438.78 | $4.74 | 55.48% | 14.72% | 16.9 |
Aside from Jalen Hurts, the big-name Eagles players were the biggest duds of the night. Sanders had a subpar game considering how bad the Texans run defense is and Dallas Goedert stole the show from the Eagles receivers.
| Player | Total Earnings | Earningss / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | ($661,418.94) | ($9.96) | 56.45% | 9.48% | 15.3 |
| DeVonta Smith | ($650,837.73) | ($13.16) | 42.02% | 2.92% | 4.2 |
| A.J. Brown | ($605,650.64) | ($9.18) | 56.05% | 11.23% | 15.9 |
| Eagles | ($500,448.47) | ($11.24) | 37.84% | 5.24% | 8 |
| Jake Elliott | ($294,956.87) | ($11.31) | 22.17% | 3.11% | 3 |
| Brevin Jordan | ($221,148.73) | ($9.40) | 20.00% | 4.04% | 1.5 |
| Boston Scott | ($200,684.58) | ($11.85) | 14.39% | 1.65% | .5 |