NFL Strategy Breakdown - DraftKings Week 10 Monday Night Showdown
Summary
The Commanders shocked the previously undefeated Eagles on Monday night. Entrants in DraftKings' NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown were shocked, too, with 77% of the field starting more Eagles than Commanders in the contest. Let's see what strategies paid off last night.
117,647 entries were submitted. The contest has an expected value of ($2.25) per lineup, with 21.15% of lineups cashing.
Winning Lineup
Three users (ocdobv, fjbourne, carney259) submitted the winning lineup, each taking home a prize of $213,333. Each of these users is playing with a decent bankroll. Two winners max-entered 150 lineups (totaling $2,250 entry fees), while the other entered 148 lineups ($2,200 in entry fees). Sometimes it takes money to make money playing daily fantasy.
While the rest of the field leaned heavily on starting Eagles, the winning lineup bet on the Commanders showing up to play. Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin was the night's leading scorer, coming in with 23.8 points (35.7 in the captain spot). The winning lineup bet on the Commanders pounding the ball on the ground, starting Commanders running backs Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson. This is a decent bet in hindsight, given that the Eagles had the 27th-ranked rush defense DVOA according to Football Outsiders.
The winners rounded out their lineup with Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, Eagles WR DeVonta Smith, and Commanders kicker Joey Slye.
Player Pool
It's no surprise that Jalen Hurts was the most-owned player of the slate, coming in at 92% ownership. It is surprising, though, that Washington kicker Joey Slye scored the third-most points of the game with 19. Slye was started in just 15.6% of lineups, but 45.7% of those lineups cashed on the night.
No ultra-cheap dart throws ended up paying off for the night. Eagles TE Jack Stoll caught a single pass for 11 yards, netting 2.1 points for his $200 salary, which wasn't enough to move the needle in a showdown slate.
| Player | Value | Ownership | Salary | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Stoll | 10.50 | 2.8% | 200 | 2.1 |
| Joey Slye | 5.00 | 15.6% | 3800 | 19 |
| Commanders | 4.69 | 6.6% | 3200 | 15 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2.90 | 26.1% | 8200 | 23.8 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 2.70 | 17.2% | 5400 | 14.6 |
| Quez Watkins | 2.62 | 6.7% | 4200 | 11 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2.18 | 38.7% | 6800 | 14.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | 1.87 | 91.8% | 12200 | 22.8 |
| DeVonta Smith | 1.86 | 43.9% | 8000 | 14.9 |
| Zach Pascal | 1.43 | 9.8% | 1400 | 2 |
Team Split
The Eagles were favored by 10.5 points, so it makes sense that the field leaned heavily on starting Eagles over Commanders. 77% of the field started more Eagles than Commanders.
Winners of the contest bet on the Commanders taking it to the Eagles. Only 1.3% of entrants started 5.5 Commanders (4 Flex + 1 Captain), but 60% of those lineups cashed in the contest. Comparatively, 17% of lineups started 5.5 Eagles and 1 Commander. But just 5.5% of those lineups cashed, with the average lineup losing $13.59 in the contest.
If you have the bankroll to submit multiple lineups in these showdowns, it can pay off to be contrarian and go against the field.
| PHI | WAS | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.16% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
| 1.0 | 5.5 | 1.29% | 60.11% | $6.64 |
| 1.5 | 5.0 | 0.25% | 51.01% | $2.38 |
| 2.0 | 4.5 | 6.38% | 42.76% | $85.92 |
| 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.93% | 36.20% | $10.26 |
| 3.0 | 3.5 | 10.65% | 31.58% | ($4.64) |
| 3.5 | 3.0 | 19.74% | 29.20% | ($4.96) |
| 4.0 | 2.5 | 5.40% | 16.81% | ($10.31) |
| 4.5 | 2.0 | 34.44% | 14.63% | ($10.93) |
| 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.83% | 8.31% | ($12.88) |
| 5.5 | 1.0 | 16.94% | 5.53% | ($13.59) |
Jalen Hurts was the most popular captain of the contest (24.7%), but wide receiver was the most popular position captained in the contest. Eagles WRs DeVonta Smith (13.2%) and A.J. Brown (13.0%) were the most popular WR captains of the night. But it was Commanders WR Terry McLaurin (4.0% ownership) who was the big winner of the night. Lineups starting McLaurin at captain earned an average of $151 in the contest.
Captained Positions
| Position | Lineup % | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 37.70% | 21.64% | $6.81 |
| QB | 27.94% | 24.89% | ($5.35) |
| RB | 13.86% | 22.88% | ($8.26) |
| TE | 10.11% | 16.06% | ($10.58) |
| DST | 8.99% | 11.91% | ($11.46) |
| K | 1.24% | 27.35% | ($4.57) |
Positions Played
Quarterbacks
Most lineups drafted Hurts and faded Heinecke, which was a winning strategy. I am trying to figure out what the people starting more than 3 quarterbacks in a contest are thinking. Maybe people starting 3 QBs are hoping that a team is up big in the 4th quarter and brings in the backup to close the game. But the couple of lineups starting 4+ quarterbacks are just throwing money away.
| QB Started | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 3.50% | 6.51% | ($13.30) |
| 1.0 | 51.24% | 18.19% | $1.55 |
| 1.5 | 20.35% | 24.78% | ($4.19) |
| 2.0 | 17.32% | 27.71% | ($6.24) |
| 2.5 | 7.56% | 23.03% | ($8.43) |
| 3.0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
| 3.5 | 0.02% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
| 4.5 | 0.01% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
| 5.5 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
Kickers
63% of lineups sat both kickers in the contest. But Commanders kicker Joey Slye popped off, scoring 19 points, the third most of the game. Slye starters made an average of $40.51 per lineup, while Elliot starters lost $11.31 on average.
| K Started | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 63.39% | 18.36% | ($9.57) |
| 1.0 | 31.95% | 24.57% | $12.42 |
| 1.5 | 0.99% | 27.93% | ($3.66) |
| 2.0 | 3.43% | 38.06% | ($2.83) |
| 2.5 | 0.25% | 25.08% | ($8.15) |
Defenses
31.5% of lineups rostered the Eagles' defense, but just 14.7% of those lineups cashed. 6.5% of lineups started the Commanders' defense, but 46.5% of those lineups cashed.
| DST Started | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 64.04% | 21.99% | $0.44 |
| 1.0 | 25.73% | 21.47% | ($5.67) |
| 1.5 | 8.07% | 10.62% | ($11.79) |
| 2.0 | 1.24% | 37.36% | ($3.32) |
| 2.5 | 0.92% | 22.41% | ($8.52) |
Salary Utilization
- 6.64% of lineups used all $50,000 in salary
- 57.13% of lineups used at least $49,500 of salary.
- The winning lineup used $48,500 of salary.
- The top 20 lineups used between $43,500 and $49,900 of salary.
Entry Ownership
The Eagles were highly owned but had some duds on the night, including WR A.J. Brown, RB Miles Sanders, and TE Dallas Goedert. With the Commanders unexpectedly embarrassing the Eagles, contrarian lineups favoring the Commanders outperformed in the contest.
Players who Made or Broke the Bank
Terry McLaurin was the night's best performer, earning entrants a total of $794K and an average of $26 per entry. Commanders Joey Slye was drafted in 15.6% of lineups but earned those lineups an average of $40.51.
| Player | Total Earnings | Earnings / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | $794,061.63 | $25.86 | 26.10% | 51.12% | 23.8 |
| Joey Slye | $743,674.43 | $40.51 | 15.60% | 45.73% | 19 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | $560,317.60 | $27.78 | 17.15% | 31.59% | 14.6 |
| Antonio Gibson | $457,507.83 | $10.05 | 38.71% | 29.04% | 14.8 |
| DeVonta Smith | $450,740.69 | $8.73 | 43.91% | 29.99% | 14.9 |
A.J. Brown was drafted in 60% of lineups, the second most-drafted player of the showdown behind Jalen Hurts. He had one catch for 7 yards, scoring a measly 1.7 points. The massive dud cost entrants $918K.
| Player | Total Earnings | Earnings / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | ($917,587.44) | ($12.87) | 60.60% | 8.06% | 1.7 |
| Curtis Samuel | ($418,494.48) | ($10.57) | 33.65% | 15.55% | 6 |
| Dallas Goedert | ($402,852.52) | ($8.14) | 42.05% | 22.59% | 10.3 |
| Miles Sanders | ($401,965.17) | ($12.19) | 28.03% | 10.35% | 5.4 |
| Eagles | ($398,310.94) | ($10.73) | 31.54% | 14.77% | 7 |
| Logan Thomas | ($361,497.40) | ($10.90) | 28.20% | 14.69% | 3.2 |
| Jake Elliott | ($308,868.94) | ($10.64) | 24.68% | 15.08% | 3 |
| Jahan Dotson | ($306,681.27) | ($12.32) | 21.16% | 9.90% | 2.4 |
| Taylor Heinicke | ($256,570.00) | ($7.42) | 29.39% | 25.01% | 7.44 |
I'll be back tomorrow with the recap of the main slate millionaire maker.