NFL Strategy Breakdown - DraftKings Week 11 Main Slate Milly Maker
This was an ugly slate. This week's new millionaire scored just 197.46 points. Last week, that same score would have won a whopping $150.
After a few weeks of the chalk hitting, the chalk didn't show up to play this week. Most of the highest-owned players of the slate didn't hit 2x value. It might be painful, but let's see what strategies paid off in this horrible slate.
177,803 entries were submitted. The contest has an expected value of ($3.00) per lineup, with 21.84% of lineups cashing.
Winning Lineup
saugust19 submitted one lineup to the contest, and it was the winning lottery ticket. Here's a look at the lineup that made saugust19 a million dollars richer.
The lineup had a primary and bring-back stack of the Cleveland at Buffalo game, stacking Jacoby Brissett with Amari Cooper, then bringing it back with Buffalo running back Devin Singletary. That's the only correlation I'm seeing in the lineup, with none of the remaining players playing in the same game.
Even though this lineup won $1M, it is surprising how much room there was for improvement. The lineup nailed the Brissett + Cooper stack, Pollard, Higgins, and the Commanders Defense. But otherwise, there was plenty of room for improvement.
Instead of Cordarrelle Patterson, they could have played David Montgomery, Antonio Gibson, or Najee Harris.
Instead of Michael Pittman Jr., they could have played Donovan Peoples-Jones, Darius Slayton, Allen Robinson II, or George Pickens.
Instead of Tyler Conklin, they could have played Dawson Knox, Juwan Johnson, or Logan Thomas.
Despite the underwhelming lineup, congratulations to saugust19 for being $1M richer.
Player Pool
Quarterbacks
24% of the field went back to the Justin Fields well, making him the most-owned quarterback of the contest. Fields had a pretty good day, scoring 23 points and 3.1x value.
Joe Burrow lead quarterbacks in scoring with 31.7 points. Jacoby Brissett (5.5x), Daniel Jones (5.2x), and Joe Burrow (4.7x) were the best value plays of the slate.
| Player | Value | Ownership | Salary | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 5.53 | 0.6% | 5400 | 29.86 |
| Daniel Jones | 5.20 | 9.8% | 5700 | 29.64 |
| Joe Burrow | 4.66 | 9.3% | 6800 | 31.7 |
| Andy Dalton | 4.19 | 0.2% | 5300 | 22.2 |
| Derek Carr | 4.16 | 0.4% | 5600 | 23.28 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3.23 | 3.9% | 5500 | 17.74 |
| Dak Prescott | 3.13 | 11.5% | 6600 | 20.64 |
| Justin Fields | 3.11 | 23.8% | 7600 | 23.62 |
| Jalen Hurts | 3.07 | 5.6% | 8200 | 25.2 |
| Kenny Pickett | 3.02 | 0.9% | 5300 | 16 |
Running Backs
Tony Pollard continued to make a case for him being the RB1 in Dallas. He scored 39.9 points, 9.7 more than any other running back. The field largely missed out on the rest of the top RB performers of the contest. Samaje Perine went off for 30.2 points at a whopping 0% ownership. Najee Harris finally showed a sign of life, scoring 27.6 points. And the Lions' Jamaal Williams scored 24.4 points with 3 rushing touchdowns.
The chalk running backs were huge duds.
- The Gus Bus needed to stay in the shop, so Kenyan Drake's ownership jumped to 23%. He scored 7.3 points.
- Brian Robinson Jr. had a great matchup against the Texans but scored just 5.7 points for the 23% of lineups that drafted him.
- Saquon Barkley was the most-expensive RB of the slate at $8900. He touched the ball 17 times but scored 5.5 points for a terrible value of 0.6x.
| Player | Value | Ownership | Salary | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 6.14 | 5.6% | 6500 | 39.9 |
| Samaje Perine | 5.92 | 0.0% | 5100 | 30.2 |
| Najee Harris | 5.02 | 3.9% | 5500 | 27.6 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4.07 | 1.4% | 6000 | 24.4 |
| David Montgomery | 3.46 | 21.0% | 6100 | 21.1 |
| Latavius Murray | 3.44 | 1.2% | 5000 | 17.2 |
| Devin Singletary | 3.05 | 11.3% | 5800 | 17.7 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2.95 | 0.2% | 6000 | 17.7 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2.93 | 8.8% | 7500 | 22 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2.38 | 11.1% | 5600 | 13.3 |
Wide Receivers
It was a rough contest for wideouts as well. 29% of lineups hoped CeeDee Lamb would recreate his 41-point game from last week. He ended up as the slate's WR31, scoring 9.5 points.
Other highly-drafted receivers that didn't pan out were Stefon Diggs (14.8 points at 23.4% ownership), Terry McLaurin (9.6 points at 17.1% ownership), and Justin Jefferson (6.3 points at 13.1% ownership).
Davante Adams was the highest-scoring receiver with 36.1 points. But the field must have been afraid of his matchup with Broncos corner Patrick Surtain, and Adams was owned in just 1.4% of lineups.
| Player | Value | Ownership | Salary | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demarcus Robinson | 6.20 | 0.6% | 4000 | 24.8 |
| Amari Cooper | 5.36 | 3.7% | 6400 | 34.3 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 4.87 | 1.3% | 4600 | 22.4 |
| Richie James Jr. | 4.60 | 0.1% | 3000 | 13.8 |
| Tutu Atwell | 4.40 | 0.0% | 3000 | 13.2 |
| Trenton Irwin | 4.40 | 0.1% | 3000 | 13.2 |
| Davante Adams | 4.15 | 1.4% | 8700 | 36.1 |
| Tee Higgins | 3.77 | 14.1% | 7100 | 26.8 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 3.72 | 14.4% | 4600 | 17.1 |
| Chris Olave | 3.56 | 2.6% | 6800 | 24.2 |
Tight Ends
How did this week's tight end roulette go? Not so well. 52% of lineups started either Cole Kmet, Dalton Schultz, or Greg Dulcich. They averaged only 6.2 points.
Juwan Johnson, Dawson Knox, and Logan Thomas were the best-value plays, each hitting 4x value.
| Player | Value | Ownership | Salary | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 4.42 | 4.0% | 3100 | 13.7 |
| Dawson Knox | 4.38 | 11.0% | 3200 | 14 |
| Logan Thomas | 4.11 | 1.7% | 2800 | 11.5 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3.79 | 4.7% | 4200 | 15.9 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2.83 | 0.1% | 3000 | 8.5 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2.61 | 0.2% | 3100 | 8.1 |
| Ian Thomas | 2.16 | 0.0% | 2500 | 5.4 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2.12 | 7.4% | 4000 | 8.5 |
| Greg Dulcich | 1.84 | 15.2% | 3800 | 7 |
| Mark Andrews | 1.81 | 3.5% | 6800 | 12.3 |
Defense
The field continued betting that the Bengals' offensive line wouldn't be able to protect quarterback Joe Burrow. The Steelers were by far the most-drafted defense at 21.1% ownership. But the Bengals protected Burrow and the ball relatively well, allowing 2 sacks and turning the ball over twice while scoring 37 points.
Six defenses hit a value of 4x: Commanders, Cowboys, Patriots, Ravens, Panthers, and Lions. But only 21% of the field started one of those defenses.
Flexed Positions
Wide receiver was the most popular flex of the contest, with 44% of lineups flexing a wideout. 29% of lineups double-upped on tight end but significantly underperformed the field, cashing in just 16.6% of lineups and losing around $13 per entry.
Running backs were the most profitable flex, with 25% of those lineups cashing and earning an average of $17 per entry.
| Position | Lineup % | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 43.97% | 23.55% | ($8.50) |
| TE | 29.29% | 16.60% | ($12.93) |
| RB | 26.69% | 24.81% | $16.99 |
Stacking Strategies
Stacks
Naked quarterback lineups couldn't repeat winning a million dollars like last week. Only having a primary stack was the worst-performing stacking strategy of the contest, losing an average of $9 per entry.
| Stack Type | % of Lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naked Quarterback | 17.15% | 23.77% | ($5.47) |
| Primary stack only | 47.62% | 21.76% | ($9.33) |
| Primary + Bring Back | 35.19% | 21.04% | $6.78 |
| Running back + Defense | 13.15% | 26.63% | ($4.85) |
Game Stacking
One bold entrant stacked 8 players from the Steelers vs. Bengals game, scoring 175.9 points and winning a $500 prize. Otherwise, loading up with 4+ players from the same game was not a winning strategy this week.
| Players From Same Game | % of Lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.17% | 22.45% | $36.95 |
| 2 | 39.32% | 22.35% | ($8.20) |
| 3 | 37.34% | 21.24% | $5.24 |
| 4 | 18.52% | 21.60% | ($10.10) |
| 5 | 3.14% | 23.25% | ($8.22) |
| 6 | 0.40% | 27.04% | ($7.01) |
| 7 | 0.05% | 32.22% | ($5.78) |
| 8 | 0.01% | 50.00% | $32.81 |
Salary Utilization
- 52.93% of lineups used all $50,000 of salary
- 97.49% of lineups used at least $49,500 of salary.
Entry Ownership
The chalk had been crushing it the past few weeks. The "Lineup Cash Rate by Total Ownership" chart looked the opposite of how it looks week, with more lineups cashing the higher ownership they had. This week, the chart shows how poorly the chalk performed, with lineups with more total ownership significantly underperforming the field.
The winning lineup had just 65% total ownership. In comparison, the previous 4 millionaire winners had 148%, 126%, 174%, and 189% total ownership.
Players who Made or Broke the Bank
Tony Pollard leads players who made the bank this week, earning $1.57M for milly maker contestants who started him.
| Player | Total Earnings | Earnings / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | $1,570,547.94 | $156.65 | 5.64% | 73.34% | 39.9 |
| Amari Cooper | $1,407,762.40 | $215.65 | 3.67% | 67.31% | 34.3 |
| Tee Higgins | $1,393,994.85 | $55.68 | 14.08% | 57.68% | 26.8 |
| Commanders | $1,130,551.16 | $96.02 | 6.62% | 44.76% | 19 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $1,062,047.00 | $993.50 | 0.60% | 68.48% | 29.86 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | $1,042,230.90 | $128.20 | 4.57% | 22.26% | 13.5 |
| Devin Singletary | $934,970.62 | $46.66 | 11.27% | 31.65% | 17.7 |
| Tyler Conklin | $901,089.11 | $94.62 | 5.36% | 17.31% | 3.5 |
A number of the highest-owned players broke the bank this week. CeeDee Lamb owners collectively lost $712K.
After back-to-back weeks of winning contestants more than $1M, Justin Fields now makes the losers list, losing $488K despite a decent fantasy performance.
| Player | Total Earnings | Earnings / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | ($712,884.21) | ($13.96) | 28.72% | 15.44% | 9.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | ($631,876.21) | ($16.73) | 21.24% | 9.13% | 5.5 |
| Steelers | ($606,138.51) | ($16.18) | 21.07% | 10.26% | 2 |
| Stefon Diggs | ($547,368.60) | ($13.14) | 23.42% | 16.80% | 14.8 |
| Kenyan Drake | ($535,609.72) | ($12.99) | 23.19% | 16.64% | 7.3 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | ($518,433.60) | ($12.72) | 22.92% | 15.94% | 5.7 |
| Justin Fields | ($488,345.95) | ($11.55) | 23.78% | 19.79% | 23.62 |
| Josh Allen | ($431,947.50) | ($16.36) | 14.85% | 10.01% | 12.58 |
| Justin Jefferson | ($406,597.05) | ($17.41) | 13.13% | 7.00% | 6.3 |
This is a slate I want to forget. Luckily, the next millionaire maker contest is just a few days away on Thanksgiving. Onto the next one!