NFL Strategy Breakdown - DraftKings Week 11 Thursday Night Showdown
$1.5M in prize money and a $500k top prize was on the line in last night's DraftKings Thursday Night Showdown between the Packers and the Titans. The Packers were favored by 3 points, but the field seemed to expect the Packers to roll, with just 70% of lineups starting more Packers than Titans. But Tannehill and the Titans showed up, beating the Pack and earning a bunch of money for fantasy players betting on the Titans. Let's break down how the field played Thursday Night's showdown contest.
117,646 entries were submitted. The contest has an expected value of ($2.25) per lineup, with 21.15% of lineups cashing.
Winning Lineup
10 users entered the winning lineup, bringing home a top prize of $72,800.
While the field largely favored starting Packers, the winners bet heavily on the Titans giving the Packers a beat-down and loading up on the Titans. They didn't buy into the narrative that Ryan Tannehill isn't a great fantasy QB, playing him in the captain spot and loading up on Titans pass catchers. The only Packer on the winning lineup was rookie wide receiver Christian Watson, who continued breaking out with a 2 touchdown performance on 4 receptions.
Player Pool
It's no surprise that Derrick Henry, Aaron Rodgers, and Aaron Jones had the highest ownership of the contest, as they were the only household names on the slate.
Despite the roller-coaster season the Packers and Aaron Rodgers have had, the field preferred the Packers' passing game to the Titans. The Packers were just 3-point favorites, but ownership of the Packers' passing game roughly doubled that of the Titans.
Packers receiver Randall Cobb was activated from injured reserve just before the contest, making him an intriguing play at just $200. He had 6 catches for 73 yards, and while he wasn't in the winning lineup, he smashed his value.
| Player | Value | Ownership | Salary | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 66.50 | 39.2% | 200 | 13.3 |
| Geoff Swaim | 6.50 | 1.7% | 200 | 1.3 |
| Austin Hooper | 4.26 | 14.4% | 4600 | 19.6 |
| Treylon Burks | 4.06 | 25.4% | 5200 | 21.1 |
| Christian Watson | 2.85 | 41.9% | 7400 | 21.1 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 2.75 | 14.3% | 3200 | 8.8 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2.40 | 31.0% | 9600 | 23.02 |
| Derrick Henry | 2.19 | 85.3% | 11600 | 25.36 |
| Robert Woods | 1.90 | 13.9% | 6800 | 12.9 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1.83 | 72.2% | 10400 | 19.08 |
Team Split
The Thursday night game was projected to be close, so it would be reasonable to expect a pretty even lineup split between the two teams. However, that wasn't the case, and 70% of the field played more Packers compared to 30% playing more Titans.
The most profitable lineups of the night were heavy on Titans. Lineups playing just one Packer in the flex spot made the most cash in the contest, earning an average of $251.84 per entry.
| GB | TEN | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.14% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
| 1.0 | 5.5 | 2.39% | 28.52% | $251.84 |
| 1.5 | 5.0 | 0.16% | 16.67% | ($9.70) |
| 2.0 | 4.5 | 8.03% | 24.33% | ($7.63) |
| 2.5 | 4.0 | 2.16% | 19.43% | ($9.66) |
| 3.0 | 3.5 | 16.73% | 25.25% | ($5.20) |
| 3.5 | 3.0 | 14.71% | 25.82% | ($6.90) |
| 4.0 | 2.5 | 14.00% | 33.99% | ($5.56) |
| 4.5 | 2.0 | 26.57% | 13.07% | ($11.02) |
| 5.0 | 1.5 | 2.99% | 1.16% | ($14.71) |
| 5.5 | 1.0 | 12.11% | 14.42% | ($11.40) |
Captained Positions
Running backs were the most captained position of the night, with Derrick Henry (30.2% CPT) and Aaron Jones (10.4%) leading the way. 30% of lineups captained a wideout, but roughly 80% of those captains were from Green Bay.
Starting Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill as captain was the night's biggest moneymaker. He was drafted in just 31% of lineups and captained in 3.1% but earned an average of $16.47 per lineup.
| Position | Lineup % | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 44.02% | 20.54% | ($8.81) |
| WR | 30.42% | 27.82% | ($6.78) |
| QB | 16.23% | 19.52% | $30.37 |
| DST | 4.13% | 1.03% | ($14.72) |
| TE | 3.79% | 12.36% | ($11.18) |
| K | 1.27% | 1.54% | ($14.62) |
Positions Played
Quarterbacks
84% of lineups rostered at least one quarterback, with most just starting a single QB in a FLEX position. Entrants starting Tannehill at captain and leaving Rodgers undrafted had the best night, but those drafting Rodgers had a decent night.
| QB Started | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 16.15% | 8.02% | ($12.78) |
| 1.0 | 52.53% | 20.07% | ($9.34) |
| 1.5 | 11.80% | 13.06% | $41.05 |
| 2.0 | 15.08% | 41.08% | ($1.40) |
| 2.5 | 4.42% | 34.94% | $1.92 |
Kickers
70% of all lineups faded both kickers. That paid off, with Mason Crosby and Josh Lambo putting up a measly 3 points.
| K Started | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 70.40% | 27.59% | $2.47 |
| 1.0 | 25.26% | 6.63% | ($13.24) |
| 1.5 | 1.07% | 1.83% | ($14.54) |
| 2.0 | 3.07% | 0.06% | ($14.99) |
| 2.5 | 0.20% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
Defenses
70% of lineups faded both defenses, with both defenses coming in at 16.6% ownership. The Titans and Packers defenses put up 4 and 5 points and starting either one tanked a lineup's chances of cashing.
| DST Started | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 70.44% | 26.11% | $2.10 |
| 1.0 | 22.68% | 11.76% | ($11.96) |
| 1.5 | 3.15% | 1.35% | ($14.63) |
| 2.0 | 2.76% | 0.71% | ($14.82) |
| 2.5 | 0.98% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
Salary Utilization
- The top lineup used all $50,000 of salary.
- The best 20 lineups ranged from $43,900 to $50,000 of salary.
- 12.98% of lineups used all $50,000 of salary.
- 49.12% of lineups used at least $49,500 of salary.
Entry Ownership
Players who Made or Broke the Bank
If you made money in the contest, it's likely thanks to the Titans passing game, who made up four of the top five moneymakers.
Packers rookie Christian Watson made $511K for people who drafted him, adding to the $1.5 million he made DraftKings players in last week's Millionaire Maker contest.
| Player | Total Earnings | Earnings / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treylon Burks | $686,279.14 | $23.00 | 25.36% | 40.25% | 21.1 |
| Austin Hooper | $667,940.00 | $39.33 | 14.44% | 34.24% | 19.6 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $601,220.00 | $16.47 | 31.02% | 33.90% | 23.02 |
| Robert Woods | $570,260.00 | $34.98 | 13.86% | 19.07% | 12.9 |
| Christian Watson | $511,953.94 | $10.38 | 41.93% | 32.02% | 21.1 |
Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers scored the 6th-most points of the contest but didn't justify his $10,400 price tag and 72% ownership. Rodgers was the biggest money loser last night, losing entrants $635K.
The Titans defense shut down Green Bay's running game, with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon collectively losing just shy of $1M on the night.
| Player | Total Earnings | Earnings / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | ($635,580.00) | ($7.48) | 72.19% | 23.62% | 19.08 |
| Aaron Jones | ($621,901.92) | ($9.42) | 56.13% | 20.25% | 14 |
| Allen Lazard | ($566,528.08) | ($10.47) | 45.98% | 16.23% | 10.7 |
| Robert Tonyan | ($358,935.00) | ($13.50) | 22.59% | 5.64% | 3.9 |
| AJ Dillon | ($323,515.00) | ($13.66) | 20.13% | 4.98% | 3.3 |
| Mason Crosby | ($313,960.00) | ($13.73) | 19.43% | 4.82% | 3 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | ($277,845.00) | ($13.07) | 18.06% | 7.41% | 4.8 |
| Titans | ($255,295.00) | ($13.03) | 16.66% | 7.45% | 4 |
| Packers | ($248,635.00) | ($12.70) | 16.64% | 9.06% | 5 |
| Josh Lambo | ($209,045.00) | ($13.47) | 13.20% | 5.76% | 3 |