NFL Strategy Breakdown - DraftKings Week 12 Main Slate Milly Maker Recap
This week's millionaire maker winner is living every casual daily fantasy player's dream: submitting a single lineup that hits it big, winning the million-dollar top prize.
Let's look at how various strategies performed in the week 12 millionaire maker contest.
177,803 entries were submitted. The contest has an expected value of ($3.00) per lineup, with 21.84% of lineups cashing.
Winning Lineup
Getsomesleep appears to be a casual DraftKings player: submitting just one lineup into the NFL millionaire maker contest each week. This week they hit it big, taking home the top $1M prize and an entry into the Tournament of Champions.
It is a unique lineup, only stacking a quarterback with a running back and without a bring-back stack. Just 3.5% of lineups entered stacked a quarterback with a running back, with no other pass-catchers from the same team. It worked well this week, with Kyler Murray having a productive rushing game (56 yards + 1 TD) and connecting with James Conner for a 6-yard passing touchdown in the 4th quarter.
Besides the QB + RB stack, there isn't much noticeable correlation with the lineup. Getsomesleep started two pass-catchers from the Ravens at Jaguars game, Ravens tight end Mark Andrews and Jaguars receiver Zay Jones. They also started two Jets: their defense and receiver Garrett Wilson.
The lineup paid up at quarterback, running back, tight end, and defense. Where the lineup really shined was hitting on less-expensive receivers. Three receivers at $4600 or cheaper were started, and they all hit.
Getsomesleep used all $50,000 of salary, and the lineup had total ownership of 104%, which was more contrarian.
Player Pool
Quarterbacks
In his first start of the year, Mike White made a solid case to be the Jets quarterback moving forward. He was the slate's best-value (5.67x) quarterback, scoring 27.8 points at just $4900 salary. He received a small salary bump to $5,400 next week but is an intriguing option with a favorable matchup against the Vikings, who have the 27th-ranked pass DVOA and have allowed the 28th most points to quarterbacks this season.
Trevor Lawrence barely edged out Justin Herbert to be the highest-scoring quarterback with 28.94 points, but Lawrence was a much better leverage play, being $1500 less expensive and 8.8% less owned than Herbert.
Player | Value | Ownership | Salary | Points |
---|---|---|---|---|
Mike White | 5.67 | 2.8% | 4900 | 27.8 |
Trevor Lawrence | 5.26 | 2.1% | 5500 | 28.94 |
Justin Herbert | 4.11 | 10.9% | 7000 | 28.76 |
Geno Smith | 4.05 | 14.4% | 6000 | 24.32 |
Derek Carr | 4.00 | 2.8% | 5700 | 22.8 |
Kyler Murray | 3.86 | 7.0% | 6800 | 26.24 |
Sam Darnold | 3.44 | 0.2% | 4900 | 16.86 |
Tom Brady | 3.11 | 4.2% | 5800 | 18.04 |
Lamar Jackson | 3.01 | 5.7% | 8000 | 24.06 |
Patrick Mahomes | 2.73 | 10.3% | 8200 | 22.4 |
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs completely went off at 3.5% ownership. His 51.3 points more than doubled the score of all other running backs on the slate at just 3.5% ownership.
Josh Jacobs was drafted in 3.5% of #DraftKings Milly Maker lineups on Sunday.
— rotoboam (@rotoboam) November 30, 2022
85.4% of those lineups cashed, earning a total of $1.64M.
The field expected massive days from Jeff Wilson Jr. and Rachaad White, who were rostered in 54.5% and 44.4% of lineups, respectively. Both backs were reasonably priced, expected to be bell-cows due to injuries on their teams, and had favorable matchups. Jeff Wilson Jr. wasn't able to capitalize on the opportunity, scoring just 12.2 points for a value of 2.07 and spending some time on the sideline due to an injury. Rachaad White, on the other hand, had a decent day, scoring 19.9 points and 3.9x value.
Player | Value | Ownership | Salary | Points |
---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Jacobs | 6.66 | 3.5% | 7700 | 51.3 |
JaMycal Hasty | 4.77 | 0.0% | 4300 | 20.5 |
Brian Robinson Jr. | 4.61 | 1.0% | 5100 | 23.5 |
Rachaad White | 3.90 | 44.4% | 5100 | 19.9 |
James Conner | 3.79 | 10.4% | 6600 | 25 |
Ty Johnson | 3.61 | 0.1% | 4100 | 14.8 |
Samaje Perine | 3.45 | 13.4% | 5600 | 19.3 |
Zonovan Knight | 3.32 | 0.0% | 4000 | 13.3 |
Ameer Abdullah | 3.15 | 0.1% | 4600 | 14.5 |
Nick Chubb | 2.97 | 1.9% | 7800 | 23.2 |
Wide Receivers
Top-tier receivers generally underperformed on the day, with all receivers costing more than $7k failing to reach the 3x value needed to move the needle in a big tournament like the milly maker.
There was a lot of value in the $3k-$5k range. 6 of the top-ten receivers of the contest fell within that salary range.
Player | Value | Ownership | Salary | Points |
---|---|---|---|---|
Zay Jones | 6.63 | 4.5% | 4600 | 30.5 |
Garrett Wilson | 6.14 | 14.8% | 4300 | 26.4 |
DeAndre Carter | 5.49 | 2.3% | 3700 | 20.3 |
Jauan Jennings | 5.45 | 0.2% | 3100 | 16.9 |
Chris Godwin | 5.33 | 8.8% | 6000 | 32 |
Jamal Agnew | 4.74 | 0.1% | 3100 | 14.7 |
DJ Moore | 4.66 | 2.8% | 5000 | 23.3 |
Treylon Burks | 4.05 | 13.1% | 4200 | 17 |
Elijah Moore | 4.00 | 1.2% | 3500 | 14 |
Tee Higgins | 3.97 | 24.4% | 6900 | 27.4 |
Tight Ends
The tight end position continues to be incredibly unpredictable. Josh Oliver of the Ravens was the highest-scoring tight end of the slate with 17.6 points at just $2500 salary and the best-value player of the entire slate with 7.04x value. Oliver was started in just 56 lineups, which equates to a measly 0.03% ownership.
Fellow Raven Mark Andrews, on the other hand, was the most-owned tight end of the slate at 17.4% ownership. He had an unimpressive day, dropping an easy touchdown catch and finishing the day with just 11 points.
Player | Value | Ownership | Salary | Points |
---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Oliver | 7.04 | 0.0% | 2500 | 17.6 |
Jordan Akins | 5.96 | 0.7% | 2700 | 16.1 |
John Bates | 4.38 | 0.0% | 2600 | 11.4 |
David Njoku | 3.86 | 9.6% | 3600 | 13.9 |
Foster Moreau | 3.62 | 9.0% | 3400 | 12.3 |
MyCole Pruitt | 3.56 | 0.1% | 2500 | 8.9 |
Hayden Hurst | 3.55 | 8.9% | 3300 | 11.7 |
Ko Kieft | 3.00 | 0.0% | 2500 | 7.5 |
Durham Smythe | 2.96 | 0.0% | 2500 | 7.4 |
Tyler Conklin | 2.58 | 2.6% | 3100 | 8 |
Defense
Flexed Positions
With several inexpensive running back chalk options on the slate, there was a significant jump in running backs flexed. 45% of lineups flexed a running back this week, compared to 26.7% last week.
While more lineups that flexed a running-back cashed, lineups flexing a wideout earned more money on the day.
Position | Lineup % | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
---|---|---|---|
RB | 45.46% | 25.36% | ($6.04) |
WR | 40.13% | 20.80% | $4.41 |
TE | 14.39% | 13.81% | ($14.03) |
Stacking Strategies
Stacks
With Justin Fields sitting out this week, there was a dip in the number of lineups running out a naked quarterback. 12.8% of lineups ran out a naked quarterback this week compared to 17.1% last week.
Most lineups used just a primary stack, which was the week's best-performing stacking strategy.
Stack Type | % of Lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
---|---|---|---|
Naked Quarterback | 12.83% | 19.69% | ($11.27) |
Primary stack only | 51.64% | 19.86% | $0.86 |
Primary + Bring Back | 35.51% | 25.46% | ($5.62) |
Running back + Defense | 11.99% | 15.75% | ($12.03) |
Game Stacking
Despite 74 points scored in the Raiders vs. Seahawks game and 73 points scored in the Packers vs. Eagles game, playing just 2 players from the same game performed the best this week.
Players From Same Game | % of Lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 0.78% | 15.42% | ($14.05) |
2 | 34.21% | 20.65% | $7.03 |
3 | 39.06% | 21.80% | ($7.88) |
4 | 20.88% | 22.82% | ($8.71) |
5 | 4.38% | 26.74% | ($8.15) |
6 | 0.57% | 27.37% | ($5.24) |
7 | 0.09% | 25.93% | ($8.60) |
8 | 0.01% | 34.62% | ($7.50) |
Salary Utilization
- 48.55% of lineups used all $50,000 of salary. The winning lineup utilized all salary.
- 96.36% of lineups used at least $49,500 of salary.
- The top 20 lineups ranged from $49,600 to $50,000 salary utilization.
Entry Ownership
The chalk had a pretty good day. Last week the chalk crashed and burned, with the "Lineup Cash Rate by Total Ownership" chart looking like this 📉. This week, we're back to the lineups with higher total ownership cashing at a higher rate.
Players who Made or Broke the Bank
Josh Jacobs had a massive day, handsomely rewarding the 3.54% lineups who drafted him with a cool $1.6M. Perhaps more impressively, a massive 85% of lineups who started Jacobs cashed in the contest.
Four other players earned contestants at least a million: receivers Chris Godwin, Garrett Wilson, and Zay Jones, as well as running back James Conner.
Player | Total Earnings | Earnings / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Points |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Jacobs | $1,644,442.03 | $261.52 | 3.54% | 85.37% | 51.3 |
Chris Godwin | $1,355,499.07 | $87.16 | 8.75% | 50.13% | 32 |
Garrett Wilson | $1,320,766.53 | $50.19 | 14.80% | 52.30% | 26.4 |
James Conner | $1,147,763.08 | $62.09 | 10.40% | 37.43% | 25 |
Zay Jones | $1,136,032.17 | $141.28 | 4.52% | 52.69% | 30.5 |
Kyler Murray | $909,052.00 | $73.61 | 6.95% | 26.89% | 26.24 |
Treylon Burks | $859,460.81 | $36.80 | 13.13% | 28.74% | 17 |
Mark Andrews | $759,098.83 | $24.54 | 17.40% | 21.39% | 11 |
Jeff Wilson Jr. was the most-owned player of the contest, coming in at 54.45% ownership. He should have had a great game against the atrocious Texans run defense with fellow back Raheem Mostert out with an injury. But Jeff Wilson Jr. missed some time in the second half with an injury of his own, finishing the game with an underwhelming 12.2 points. The mediocre game lost contestants just under $1 million.
Jeff Wilson Jr. was the most-owned player in the #DraftKings Week 12 NFL Millionaire Maker.
— rotoboam (@rotoboam) November 30, 2022
Lineups drafting him lost a total of $1M in the contest.
Player | Total Earnings | Earnings / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Points |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jeff Wilson Jr. | ($999,948.22) | ($10.33) | 54.45% | 22.75% | 12.2 |
Rachaad White | ($544,446.34) | ($6.89) | 44.44% | 28.23% | 19.9 |
Kenneth Walker III | ($500,457.39) | ($9.96) | 28.26% | 23.07% | 16.9 |
Terry McLaurin | ($451,782.47) | ($13.70) | 18.54% | 16.25% | 9.3 |
Tyreek Hill | ($436,227.78) | ($14.53) | 16.89% | 13.75% | 15 |
Tua Tagovailoa | ($423,390.00) | ($17.20) | 13.85% | 7.41% | 15.96 |
Joshua Palmer | ($410,958.01) | ($12.45) | 18.56% | 18.48% | 10.6 |
Michael Carter | ($392,550.63) | ($15.80) | 13.97% | 10.40% | 5.6 |
Travis Kelce | ($366,417.53) | ($12.24) | 16.84% | 19.06% | 15.7 |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | ($353,961.22) | ($15.98) | 12.46% | 9.80% | 6.8 |
Chiefs | ($348,661.01) | ($5.20) | 37.73% | 29.72% | 11 |
Latavius Murray | ($336,795.91) | ($12.63) | 15.00% | 18.27% | 10.8 |
Jaylen Waddle | ($321,957.50) | ($16.10) | 11.25% | 9.79% | 13.5 |
Joe Burrow | ($313,118.75) | ($11.33) | 15.54% | 21.05% | 18 |
Davante Adams | ($310,297.16) | ($12.01) | 14.53% | 18.89% | 14.4 |