NFL Strategy Breakdown - DraftKings Week 17 Thursday Night Showdown
$500K was on the line last night in DraftKings' $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown contest between the Dallas Cowboys and the Tennessee Titans. The field expected the Cowboys to rout the Titans, with 88% of lineups starting at least 4 Cowboys. But a more balanced lineup with 3 Titans took down the slate. Let's break down how the field played the week 17 Thursday Night Showdown.
117,647 entries were submitted. The contest has an expected value of ($2.25) per lineup, with 21.15% of lineups cashing.
Winning Lineup
The winning lineup was shared by 18 entrants, each taking home $41,138.89.
The lineup went all in on the passing game, only rostering quarterbacks and pass catchers from both teams. It stacked Cowboys Dak Prescott with receiver CeeDee Lamb and captained tight end Dalton Schultz. They brought it back with a Titans stack of Joshua Dobbs, Treylon Burks, and Robert Woods.
The winning lineup used $48,300 of salary, which was in the 56th percentile of lineups. It had a total ownership of 272%, which was more contrarian than 88% of lineups.
Player Pool
Eight of the top ten most-owned players were Cowboys. Dalton Schultz was the highest-scorer of the slate, scoring 24.6 points at just 31.2% ownership.
Zeke was the third-most owned player of the slate. His 9.7 points disappointed, losing those who started him a total of $985K.
Zeke drafters lost $985K in last night's #DraftKings $1.5M TNF Showdown. pic.twitter.com/audp9N2gVG
— rotoboam (@rotoboam) December 30, 2022
With Tony Pollard sitting out, the Cowboys third-string running back Malik Davis turned into a great value play. He was min-priced at $200 and scored 8.2 points. But salary wasn't at a premium in this showdown, and lineups rostering Davis lost an average of $9.
| Player | Value | Ownership | Salary | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Davis | 41.00 | 18.5% | 200 | 8.2 |
| Racey McMath | 24.50 | 0.5% | 200 | 4.9 |
| Jonathan Ward | 20.00 | 0.3% | 200 | 4 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3.73 | 31.2% | 6600 | 24.6 |
| Julius Chestnut | 3.00 | 8.1% | 1400 | 4.2 |
| Robert Woods | 2.98 | 10.6% | 5000 | 14.9 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2.43 | 50.5% | 3000 | 7.3 |
| Brett Maher | 2.38 | 25.6% | 4200 | 10 |
| Treylon Burks | 2.33 | 18.5% | 5400 | 12.6 |
| Titans | 2.19 | 4.6% | 3200 | 7 |
Team Split
It's no surprise that the field leaned heavily towards starting Cowboys over Titans. The Cowboys were two-touchdown favorites, Titans 3rd string quarterback Joshua Dobbs had never started an NFL game in his 6-year career, and King Henry sat out the game to rest up for a matchup with the Jags next week.
88% of the field started at least 4 Cowboys, with more than half of lineups starting 5 Cowboys and only flexing one Titan.
But it was lineups that captained a Cowboy, then flexed 2 Cowboys and 3 Titans that performed the best, earning $90 per lineup.
| DAL | TEN | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.20% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
| 1.0 | 5.5 | 0.16% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
| 1.5 | 5.0 | 0.03% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
| 2.0 | 4.5 | 0.94% | 4.99% | ($13.73) |
| 2.5 | 4.0 | 0.50% | 9.60% | ($12.56) |
| 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.11% | 9.48% | ($12.01) |
| 3.5 | 3.0 | 6.29% | 16.11% | $90.06 |
| 4.0 | 2.5 | 4.59% | 22.11% | ($8.94) |
| 4.5 | 2.0 | 28.41% | 17.83% | ($8.72) |
| 5.0 | 1.5 | 2.20% | 20.39% | ($9.62) |
| 5.5 | 1.0 | 52.57% | 24.97% | ($7.74) |
Captained Positions
The field was evenly split between captaining a wide receiver, running back, and quarterback. CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott, and Dak Prescott were all captained in roughly 20% of lineups.
Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz was the captain to play, scoring 36.9 points on a salary of $9,900. Just 4.6% of lineups captained a tight end, but those lineups earned an average of $146.53.
| Position | Lineup % | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 27.95% | 22.98% | ($7.44) |
| RB | 27.11% | 9.65% | ($12.53) |
| QB | 23.81% | 24.88% | ($7.94) |
| DST | 15.15% | 18.39% | ($10.31) |
| TE | 4.66% | 69.28% | $146.53 |
| K | 1.12% | 15.58% | ($10.62) |
Positions Played
Quarterbacks
The majority of entrants started Dak Prescott (91.3% ownership) and sat Joshua Dobbs (32.1% ownership). 22% of lineups flexed both quarterbacks, which was the most profitable play of the contest.
| QB Started | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 4.40% | 14.32% | ($11.27) |
| 1.0 | 49.69% | 22.14% | ($8.40) |
| 1.5 | 13.75% | 28.79% | ($7.15) |
| 2.0 | 21.97% | 16.37% | $19.70 |
| 2.5 | 9.99% | 19.66% | ($8.98) |
| 3.0 | 0.12% | 0.69% | ($14.83) |
| 3.5 | 0.06% | 1.32% | ($14.67) |
| 4.0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
| 4.5 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
Kickers
Despite a decent showing from Cowboys kicker Brett Maher, rostering a kicker was a losing proposition. Lineups benching both kickers made money in the contest, while lineups rostering one collectively lost money.
| K Started | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 69.39% | 23.25% | $0.92 |
| 1.0 | 27.65% | 16.51% | ($9.28) |
| 1.5 | 1.02% | 15.89% | ($10.50) |
| 2.0 | 1.83% | 15.39% | ($10.86) |
| 2.5 | 0.11% | 12.70% | ($11.83) |
Defenses
The Cowboys defense was relatively expensive at $5,800, but the matchup against a depleted Titans roster enticed 55% of entrants to start them. They scored 10 points, which wasn't enough to make a significant amount of money.
Sitting both defenses was the optimal play. Cowboys defense starters lost a total of $637K in the contest.
| DST Started | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 42.68% | 26.13% | $7.89 |
| 1.0 | 40.63% | 17.24% | ($9.56) |
| 1.5 | 14.02% | 18.59% | ($10.26) |
| 2.0 | 1.55% | 13.59% | ($11.06) |
| 2.5 | 1.13% | 15.92% | ($11.02) |
Salary Utilization
With the most expensive active Titan being Joshua Dobbs at $6K, most contestants left a significant amount of salary unspent.
- 4.89% of lineups used all $50,000 of salary
- 33.22% of lineups used at least $49,500 of salary.
- The average salary utilization was $48,800.
- The top 20 lineups used between $46,500 and $48,300 of salary.
Entry Ownership
While chalky lineups cashed at a decent rate, the best-performing lineups were more contrarian: fading highly-drafted underperformers like Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys defense. Dalton Schultz was the highest-scorer at just 31.2%% ownership. The field also essentially slept on the Titans passing game. Robert Woods (10% owned), Treylon Burks (19% owned), and Joshua Dobbs (32% owned) were the 4-6th highest-scorers, but only Dobbs was one of the 10 most-drafted players.
Players who Made or Broke the Bank
Dalton Schultz stole the show, earning contestants $900K.
Those brave enough to bet on the Titans passing game were rewarded: Robert Woods earned contestants $705K, Treylon Burks earned $595K, and Joshua Dobbs starters made $414K.
| Player | Total Earnings | Earnings / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | $900,065.00 | $24.50 | 31.23% | 62.44% | 24.6 |
| Robert Woods | $704,770.00 | $56.69 | 10.57% | 30.97% | 14.9 |
| Treylon Burks | $595,443.99 | $27.42 | 18.46% | 23.33% | 12.6 |
| Joshua Dobbs | $414,445.00 | $10.96 | 32.14% | 18.63% | 12.48 |
Zeke was the third most-drafted player of the contest. Zeke was in a great spot with fellow running back Tony Pollard sitting out and the Cowboys heavily favored. His mediocre showing cost contestants a huge $985K.
The Cowboys defense and Titans running back Hassan Haskins cost entrants over half a million.
| Player | Total Earnings | Earnings / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | ($985,045.52) | ($10.42) | 80.35% | 16.44% | 9.7 |
| Cowboys | ($637,967.54) | ($9.78) | 55.44% | 17.47% | 10 |
| Hassan Haskins | ($554,015.89) | ($9.32) | 50.52% | 20.34% | 7.3 |
| Michael Gallup | ($357,520.00) | ($11.33) | 26.81% | 13.55% | 6.9 |
| Brett Maher | ($275,194.92) | ($9.13) | 25.62% | 16.81% | 10 |
| Malik Davis | ($201,625.00) | ($9.26) | 18.50% | 18.74% | 8.2 |
| Noah Brown | ($159,170.00) | ($13.49) | 10.03% | 5.85% | 1.7 |
| Dak Prescott | ($147,280.00) | ($1.37) | 91.35% | 21.93% | 17.38 |
| Chig Okonkwo | ($136,496.01) | ($11.97) | 9.70% | 10.99% | 5.4 |