NFL Strategy Breakdown - DraftKings Week 7 Main Slate Milly Maker
Summary
- The chalk hit for the second week in a row. Chalk eaters made a lot of money this week. Should you care so much about projected player ownership when building lineups? I'm not so sure...
- Smaller game stacks outperformed big game stacks again.
- Not doing a bring-back stack outperformed bring-back stacks this week.
- Stacking the Bengals offense every week may be a viable strategy.
Flexed Positions
This week's slate had a number of cheap chalky RB's, so we saw an uptick in the number of running backs that were flexed. And it paid off, with entries flexing an RB winning $10 on average.
| Position | Lineup % | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 38.94% | 27.83% | $10.06 |
| WR | 38.31% | 17.95% | ($11.64) |
| TE | 22.70% | 22.04% | ($8.63) |
Salary Utilization
I'm starting to feel like a broken record here, but most lineups aren't leaving much salary on the table.
50.1% of lineups used all $50,000 in salary
95% of lineups used at least $49,500 of salary.
The top 10 lineups this week all either used all salary or left just $100 on the table. But a handful of lineups in the 10-20 range left $300-$400 unused.
Percentage Ownership
The chalk smashed again this week. The top 20 lineups all had 100%+ total ownership.
| Rank | Points | Net Earnings | Total Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 255.04 | $1,022,647.00 | 189 |
| 2 | 251.94 | $149,980.00 | 191 |
| 3 | 246.74 | $99,980.00 | 142 |
| 4 | 245.44 | $49,980.00 | 139 |
| 5 | 244.88 | $29,980.00 | 182 |
| 6 | 243.94 | $19,980.00 | 149 |
| 7 | 243.54 | $14,980.00 | 135 |
| 8 | 243.42 | $14,980.00 | 109 |
| 9 | 239.84 | $9,980.00 | 138 |
| 10 | 239.54 | $9,980.00 | 183 |
| 11 | 238.34\ | $6,980.00 | 186 |
| 11 | 238.34 | $6,980.00 | 208 |
| 13 | 238.04 | $6,980.00 | 120 |
| 14 | 237.94 | $6,980.00 | 191 |
| 15 | 237.82 | $6,980.00 | 140 |
| 16 | 237.74 | $4,980.00 | 165 |
| 17 | 237.04 | $4,980.00 | 131 |
| 17 | 237.04 | $4,980.00 | 138 |
| 19 | 236.84 | $4,980.00 | 129 |
| 20 | 236.44 | $4,980.00 | 142 |
I think these charts make it really clear just how much the chalk hit.
Stacking Strategies
Stacks
Primary stacks without a bring-back were the big winners this week. Starting a QB without any other position players from the same team (naked QB) continues to underperform in the biggest tournament of the slate.
| Stack Type | % of Lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naked QB | 13.65% | 18.74% | $(11.81) |
| Primary stack only | 49.29% | 26.71% | $7.41 |
| Primary + Bring Back | 37.00% | 18.89% | $(12.28) |
Game Stacking
Smaller game stacks performed better again this week.
| Players From Same Game | % of Lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.97% | 22.66% | $(11.69) |
| 2 | 35.86% | 24.95% | $(6.05) |
| 3 | 36.74% | 22.59% | $7.00 |
| 4 | 20.90% | 20.11% | $(10.09) |
| 5 | 4.63% | 19.14% | $(12.39) |
| 6 | 0.71% | 20.08% | $(11.97) |
| 7 | 0.12% | 10.44% | $(16.43) |
| 8 | 0.02% | 2.22% | $(19.33) |
Players to love and hate
For the second week in a row, stacking Burrow + Chase made DFS players a lot of money. Burrow starters in the milly maker made a collective $2.1 million this week.
| Player Name | Total Earnings | Net Earnings / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Lineups | Fantasy Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | $2,130,312.00 | $57.99 | 17.03% | 11.37% | 36739 | 42.24 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | $1,844,146.53 | $55.33 | 15.45% | 9.03% | 33330 | 36.00 |
| Mecole Hardman | $1,388,073.81 | $298.96 | 2.15% | 0.96% | 4643 | 28.00 |
| Kenneth Walker III | $1,363,252.37 | $19.71 | 32.06% | 11.49% | 69174 | 31.80 |
| Josh Jacobs | $1,263,642.21 | $12.54 | 46.71% | 16.62% | 100771 | 39.50 |
| Austin Ekeler | $1,184,981.71 | $25.72 | 21.35% | 7.05% | 46068 | 36.70 |
| Parris Campbell | $1,118,358.63 | $196.41 | 2.64% | 1.09% | 5694 | 23.00 |
| Hayden Hurst | $1,110,730.82 | $63.70 | 8.08% | 2.84% | 17438 | 10.80 |
| Jets | $564,818.74 | $5.98 | 43.76% | 11.92% | 94412 | 7.00 |
| Tyler Boyd | $456,971.51 | $40.18 | 5.27% | 2.65% | 11373 | 32.50 |
Stacking the Cowboys and Lions game didn't pan out this week. And injuries to Breece Hall and DK Metcalf tanked a lot of lineups this week (including mine).
| Player Name | Total Earnings | Net Earnings / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Lineups | Fantasy Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | ($712,972.39) | ($12.44) | 26.56% | 5.03% | 57304 | 10.60 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | ($482,904.33) | ($17.70) | 12.65% | 0.84% | 27289 | 1.40 |
| Michael Gallup | ($467,388.76) | ($15.42) | 14.05% | 1.70% | 30312 | 0.00 |
| Dak Prescott | ($443,970.00) | ($17.96) | 11.46% | 0.73% | 24720 | 12.28 |
| Breece Hall | ($435,975.08) | ($12.51) | 16.16% | 2.93% | 34863 | 13.20 |
| Leonard Fournette | ($425,155.59) | ($17.76) | 11.10% | 0.72% | 23943 | 4.60 |
| DK Metcalf | ($403,684.94) | ($16.79) | 11.14% | 1.05% | 24039 | 2.20 |
| Buccaneers | ($381,001.11) | ($14.52) | 12.17% | 1.61% | 26248 | 1.00 |
| Chris Godwin | ($375,064.80) | ($11.55) | 15.05% | 3.10% | 32468 | 11.50 |
| Romeo Doubs | ($373,856.26) | ($14.25) | 12.16% | 1.77% | 26240 | 0.00 |