NFL Strategy Breakdown - DraftKings Week 8 Main Slate Milly Maker
Summary
One lineup is all it takes to win $1M playing daily fantasy, and chalk can be delicious.
Let's break down how this past week's DraftKings NFL Week 8 Milly Maker went down. We'll take a look at the top lineup of the slate and dig into what lineup-building strategies paid off this week and which didn't.
207,215 entries were submitted. The expected value was a loss of $3.00 per lineup, with 22.20% of lineups cashing.
Winning Lineup
AllstarHarry submitted just one lineup to the week 8 millionaire maker. That lineup completely crushed it, earning the top spot and a million dollars.
AllstarHarry leaned into starting highly-owned players, with 5 out of 9 starters coming in at 20%+ ownership.
They also used a combination of stacking options to build the lineup:
- Primary stack of Miami Dolphins offense, without bringing back any Detroit Lions.
- QB: Tua Tagovailoa
- WR: Tyreek Hill
- WR: Jaylen Waddle
- Stacking running back and defense with the Saints defense and Alvin Kamara. Who would have guessed the Saints would completely shut down the Raiders offense?
- Starting two cheaper pass catchers from the Jets (receiver Garrett Wilson and tight end Tyler Conklin) who both had great games.
- Rounding out the lineup with Tony Pollard who was set to dominate touches in the Cowboys backfield with Zeke out, and DJ Moore who has seen an uptick in usage with CMC being shipped off to the 49ers.
Congratulations to AllstarHarry for putting together a great lineup and earning that top $1M prize. It goes to show you that you don't need to be a professional and max enter 150 lineups to take down the biggest tournament of the week. Just $20 and one lineup can do it.
Flexed Positions
With most of the NFL's top tight ends off of the main slate, we saw a dip in the number of lineups that flexed a tight end. Lineups flexing a tight end dropped 6% compared to last week's contest.
While more lineups cashed when flexing a running back, lineups flexing a wide receiver made the most money in the tournament. Flexing a tight end continues to be a losing proposition. With today's tight end landscape, it's proving difficult to pick 2 tight ends that pop off.
| Position | Lineup % | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 42.24% | 20.32% | $0.62 |
| RB | 41.27% | 23.94% | ($3.96) |
| TE | 16.46% | 22.71% | ($9.86) |
Salary Utilization
We continue to see entrants leaving at most a few hundred dollars in salary on the table.
- 51.65% of lineups used all $50,000 in salary, including the top lineup.
- 97.21% of lineups used at least $49,500 of salary.
What lower-salary plays could have improved the top lineup of the week?
- Sitting Tyreek Hill ($8500 - 34.5 points) in favor of A.J. Brown ($7700 - 42.6 points) or DeAndre Hopkins ($7400 - 36.9 points)
- Sitting DJ Moore ($5300 - 30.5 points) and flexing D'Onta Foreman instead ($5300 - 34.8 points)
Entry Ownership
For the third week in a row, we see a very positive correlation between total player ownership and the number of lineups that are cashing.
A lot of analysts will say things like "I don't like player X at that high projected ownership" or "Player X is projecting high ownership this week, player Y is a good pivot away from the chalk." After diving into this data, I'm still not convinced that projected player ownership should be seriously considered when building tournament lineups.
Everyone knew Tony Pollard would be high-owned this week, and he came in at a massive 51% ownership. And he crushed it this week, scoring 36.7 points for 6x value.
With Miami being favored in the highest over/under line of the week, everyone was talking about how the Dolphins would be a popular stack this week. And the Tua + Tyreek + Waddle stack smashed again this week, with all of those guys coming in at 20%+ ownership.
Pivoting away from those starts due to high projected ownership would have been a losing move this week. Personally, I'm going to build lineups without worrying too much about what the rest of the field is doing.
Stacking Strategies
Stacks
22.7% of lineups ran out a naked QB this week. Starting minimum-priced Sam Ehlinger without any Colts pass catchers and spending up on other positions was a common play this week, with a whopping 9.6% of lineups running Ehlinger out naked. And well, that play didn't pan out so well this week. Naked Ehlinger lineups lost $8.50 on average this week.
Primary stacks without a bring back continued to outperform lineups that had a primary stack and bringing it back with a player from the opposing team. For the second week in a row, the milly maker winner utilized the strategy of a primary stack without bringing it back.
| Stack Type | % of Lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naked QB | 22.71% | 20.15% | ($11.49) |
| Primary stack only | 42.61% | 24.02% | $8.20 |
| Primary + Bring Back | 34.65% | 21.33% | ($11.20) |
Game Stacking
There are still a decent number of people going wild with game stacks, hoping we get another game like the Seahawks v Lions in week 4 and starting 5+ players from the same game. Well, that strategy did not pay off this week.
Most lineups are maxing out at starting 2-4 players from the same game, and that strategy seems to be paying off. Lineups starting 3 players from the same game cashed in 22% of lineups and made $9.46 on average this week.
| Players From Same Game | % of Lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.57% | 27.85% | ($9.67) |
| 2 | 40.17% | 21.98% | ($8.91) |
| 3 | 34.43% | 22.36% | $9.46 |
| 4 | 18.22% | 23.21% | ($9.72) |
| 5 | 4.63% | 19.26% | ($12.82) |
| 6 | 0.79% | 13.07% | ($15.76) |
| 7 | 0.13% | 5.22% | ($18.43) |
| 8 | 0.02% | 0.00% | ($20.00) |
Players to Love and Hate
What players made daily fantasy players the most cash in this week's milly maker?
The Tua + Tyreek Hill + Jaylen Waddle stack paid off big time this week, each netting players well over $1M this week.
| Player | Total Earnings | Earningss / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | $1,596,959.36 | $36.44 | 21.15% | 9.68% | 32.18 |
| Alvin Kamara | $1,507,911.96 | $58.21 | 12.50% | 5.11% | 42.8 |
| Garrett Wilson | $1,371,614.95 | $89.11 | 7.43% | 2.66% | 20.5 |
| Tyler Conklin | $1,343,511.66 | $415.82 | 1.56% | 0.63% | 25.9 |
| Jaylen Waddle | $1,341,656.02 | $27.63 | 23.43% | 8.87% | 33.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | $1,145,418.35 | $19.22 | 28.76% | 10.00% | 34.5 |
| DJ Moore | $1,129,711.24 | $19.74 | 27.62% | 10.24% | 30.5 |
| Saints | $1,057,472.94 | $583.92 | 0.87% | 0.34% | 16 |
| Tony Pollard | $1,028,751.19 | $9.75 | 50.92% | 17.50% | 36.7 |
| D'Onta Foreman | $594,798.02 | $13.03 | 22.03% | 9.76% | 34.8 |
The biggest duds of the week? Chris Olave leads the pack this week, drafted in 28% of lineups but losing $800k this week.
Entrants continue to bleed money as we all wait for Justin Jefferson to bounce back.
| Player | Total Earnings | Earningss / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | ($802,079.99) | ($13.48) | 28.71% | 4.94% | 10.2 |
| Raheem Mostert | ($753,922.12) | ($15.71) | 23.16% | 2.90% | 7.7 |
| Kenneth Walker III | ($611,070.69) | ($14.62) | 20.18% | 2.99% | 12.2 |
| Saquon Barkley | ($534,930.00) | ($17.37) | 14.87% | 1.21% | 15.2 |
| Josh Jacobs | ($503,486.59) | ($17.72) | 13.71% | 0.95% | 7.4 |
| Justin Jefferson | ($485,776.59) | ($17.01) | 13.78% | 1.27% | 15.8 |
| DeVonta Smith | ($430,024.54) | ($16.80) | 12.35% | 1.16% | 7.3 |
| Sam Ehlinger | ($426,522.00) | ($11.85) | 17.37% | 3.39% | 8.54 |
| Derrick Henry | ($421,980.47) | ($9.02) | 22.58% | 5.52% | 38.8 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | ($385,234.05) | ($10.60) | 17.53% | 4.02% | 6.8 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | ($351,190.09) | ($14.64) | 11.58% | 1.69% | 3.5 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | ($342,693.08) | ($11.39) | 14.52% | 3.29% | 13.9 |