NFL Strategy Breakdown - DraftKings Week 9 Main Slate Milly Maker

For the second week in a row, the top lineup stacked a running back and defense in addition to a primary stack. Justin Fields gives naked QB starters hope, and Joe Mixon earned fantasy players over $2M. Let's break down the 207,215 lineups from the week 9 Milly Maker.

The contest has an expected value of ($3.00) per lineup, with 22.20% of lineups cashing.

Winning Lineup

csears175 submitted 35 lineups to the Milly Maker, with one of those hitting it big and earning the million-dollar top prize.

The lineup had a cheap primary stack with Fields + Mooney + Kmet (just $13,300 of salary spent), bringing it back with Tyreek Hill. They also stacked New England's defense and running back: Paid up at defense, spending $4100 to start New England against the abysmal Colts offense. They also started Rhamondre Stevenson, who should have been in a smash spot with Damien Harris out again, but Stevenson underperformed his $6,200 salary and 40% ownership. The lineup was filled in the lineup with Joe Mixon, Christian Kirk, and Kenneth Walker III.

csears175 entered 35 lineups and had 47 players in their player pool. Here's a look at their player pool. Percentages are exposure to each player. Players from the winning lineup are in bold.

• QB: Jared Goff 31%, Justin Fields 31%, Tua Tagovailoa 26%, Justin Herbert 11%
• RB: Rhamondre Stevenson 69%, Travis Etienne Jr. 46%, Kenneth Walker III 34%, Joe Mixon 29%, Aaron Jones 29%, Raheem Mostert 20%, Josh Jacobs 6%, Deon Jackson 6%, Antonio Gibson 3%
• WR: Darnell Mooney 69%, Tyreek Hill 63%, Amon-Ra St. Brown 37%, Christian Kirk 37%, Joshua Palmer 29%, Justin Jefferson 29%, Jaylen Waddle 23%, Tyler Lockett 23%, Drake London 14%, Curtis Samuel 9%, DeAndre Hopkins 9%, Allen Lazard 6%, Jakobi Meyers 3%, Romeo Doubs 3%, Rondale Moore 3%, Tee Higgins 3%, Adam Thielen 3%
• TE: Brock Wright 34%, Cole Kmet 20%, Foster Moreau 14%, Gerald Everett 11%, Noah Fant 9%, Robert Tonyan 3%, Tyler Higbee 3%, Logan Thomas 3%, Cade Otton 3%
• DST: Jets 37%, Panthers 20%, Seahawks 17%, Patriots 9%, Dolphins 6%, Jaguars 6%, Vikings 3%, Buccaneers 3%

Flexed Positions

We continue to see around 40% of lineups flexing WR or RB, with the remaining 20% flexing a TE. Running back flexers won the slate, with 27% of lineups cashing and earning an average of $9.58.

Stacking Strategies

Stacks

The naked QB strategy (QB with no other offensive players from their team) has been a losing strategy in large tournaments this year. However, Justin Fields brought some life to the strategy this week. 17,810 lineups started Fields naked, with 60% of those lineups cashing. Still, stacking Fields with Kmet or Mooney would have performed better.

After a few weeks of only primary stacks performing the best, primary and bring-back stacks retake the top spot.

Game Stacking

Most lineups continue to stack 2-4 players from the same game. In weeks 7 and 8, stacking 3 players from the same game performed the best. Starting 4 players from the same game won out this week, taking home on average $15 per lineup.

Salary Utilization

• 50.62% of lineups used all $50,000 in salary
• 97.11% of lineups used at least $49,500 of salary.

Entry Ownership

There continues to be a strong positive correlation between total lineup ownership and whether lineups cash. This week, the higher total ownership a lineup had, the better chance it had of cashing. However, that doesn't mean the higher total ownership your lineup has, the better chance you have at winning a million dollars. This week, the new millionaire had 126% total ownership. That is down from 174% in week 8 and 189% in week 7.

Players who Made or Broke the Bank

Joe Mixon's tremendous fantasy performance made contestants over $2 million, with 74% of Mixon starters cashing. Fields + Mooney + Kmet stackers made bank as well, with each player earning over $1M.

Aaron Jones's injury was costly. The Green Bay running-back had a great matchup against the Lions and was drafted in 25% of lineups, but the star back left the game with an ankle injury, costing fantasy players $678k.

Other chalky players underperforming were Austin Ekeler, DeAndre Hopkins, and Evan Engram. Each came in at 20+% ownership but lost around $500k for their owners.