NFL Strategy Breakdown - DraftKings Week 9 Monday Night Showdown
Summary
It was another lackluster prime-time football game. But there was a top prize of $500k on the line in DraftKings' $1.5M Monday Night Showdown, so let's take a look at what went down.
117,647 entries were submitted. The contest has an expected value of ($2.25) per lineup with 21.15% of lineups cashing.
Winning Lineup
thehomebrew put together a unique lineup and took home the top prize of $500k.
thehomebrew bet on the Ravens having an efficient running game, starting QB (and honestly, RB1) Lamar Jackson and RB Kenyan Drake without any Ravens pass catchers. The winning lineup started just two Saints, WR Chris Olave and TE Juwan Johnson, and rounded out the lineup with the Ravens defense and kicker Justin Tucker.
thehomebrew also left plenty of salary on the table, spending just $45,200 of the $50,000 salary cap. That's less than 83% of the field. Fortune favors the bold, and that's why the homebrew is now $500k richer (and I'm not).
Team Split
The game was projected to be close, with Baltimore favored by just 1.5 points. The split of Ravens to Saints aligned well with betting odds, with 60% of lineups starting more Ravens and 40% of lineups favoring Saints.
Starting more Ravens was a winning strategy, as the "Lineup Cash Rate by Team Split" chart clearly shows that the more Ravens were started, the more lineups cashed.
| BAL | NO | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
| 1.0 | 5.5 | 3.46% | 3.54% | ($14.11) |
| 1.5 | 5.0 | 0.29% | 15.56% | ($10.62) |
| 2.0 | 4.5 | 11.89% | 8.98% | ($12.61) |
| 2.5 | 4.0 | 4.46% | 15.43% | ($1.11) |
| 3.0 | 3.5 | 19.46% | 17.16% | ($10.44) |
| 3.5 | 3.0 | 22.82% | 18.34% | ($9.33) |
| 4.0 | 2.5 | 9.37% | 21.97% | ($8.97) |
| 4.5 | 2.0 | 21.26% | 28.88% | $22.25 |
| 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.98% | 27.54% | ($7.32) |
| 5.5 | 1.0 | 5.70% | 57.08% | $3.64 |
Captained Positions
It's no surprise that Lamar Jackson was the most popular captain of the night, captained in 25.7% of lineups despite eating up 37% of available salary.
Alvin Kamara was the next most popular captain at 20.6%. But it was Kenyan Drake, at just 4.7% captain ownership, who made captaining a running back the winning strategy for the contest. 4.7% captain ownership for the leading running back on the Ravens' run-first offense was surprising, especially with the Saints defense being average against the run.
Punting on captain and playing the Ravens Defense ($7200) or kicker Justin Tucker ($6300) also paid off well, each scoring 15 points in the captained position.
| Position | Lineup % | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 34.37% | 18.04% | ($9.45) |
| RB | 26.07% | 24.16% | $17.40 |
| WR | 20.85% | 18.54% | ($9.97) |
| TE | 11.56% | 21.14% | ($9.35) |
| K | 4.05% | 39.65% | ($2.91) |
| DST | 2.79% | 26.97% | ($7.75) |
Positions Played
Quarterbacks
Lamar was drafted in a huge 87.8% of lineups, while Andy Dalton came in at 35.3% ownership. Starting Lamar and fading Dalton was the winning strategy, as Lamar continued being Lamar, and Dalton continued underperforming in prime-time. Dalton scored the 5th most points of the contest with 11.9, but that certainly wasn't enough to pay off his $10,200 salary.
| QB Started | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 1.69% | 18.39% | ($10.34) |
| 1.0 | 35.82% | 29.20% | $8.12 |
| 1.5 | 16.72% | 24.74% | ($7.05) |
| 2.0 | 26.17% | 15.26% | ($5.75) |
| 2.5 | 15.76% | 12.46% | ($11.48) |
| 3.0 | 1.95% | 10.53% | ($12.00) |
| 3.5 | 1.86% | 5.38% | ($13.64) |
| 4.0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
| 4.5 | 0.02% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
| 5.0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ($15.00) |
Kickers
Most lineups left kickers on the sidelines, but Lutz and Tucker had decent showings. Starting Tucker and sitting Lutz had the best earnings for the night, but lineups that captained a kicker and started the other cashed in 43% of lineups and almost broke even.
| K Started | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 53.80% | 18.20% | ($8.61) |
| 1.0 | 35.58% | 23.40% | $8.52 |
| 1.5 | 2.58% | 37.53% | ($4.31) |
| 2.0 | 6.57% | 22.02% | ($8.10) |
| 2.5 | 1.47% | 43.37% | ($0.47) |
Defenses
80% of lineups sat both defenses. But the Ravens defense had a good showing, scoring 10 points at just 12.6% ownership and averaging $32.48 profit for entrants who started them.
| DST Started | % of lineups | Cashed % | Net Earnings Per Entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 80.09% | 20.49% | ($6.76) |
| 1.0 | 16.11% | 23.55% | $21.57 |
| 1.5 | 2.16% | 31.10% | ($6.59) |
| 2.0 | 1.01% | 21.04% | ($9.25) |
| 2.5 | 0.63% | 12.82% | ($11.72) |
Salary Utilization
- 10.02% of lineups used all $50,000 in salary
- 52.00% of lineups used at least $49,500 of salary.
- A number of the top-performing lineups left salary on the table. The top lineup used $45.200, second place used $46.200, and third used $47,800.
Be bold and don't always use all of your salary when building showdown lineups.
Entry Ownership
The average total ownership across all lineups was 232%. The best-performing lineups of the slate were slightly on the more contrarian side. The winning lineup had 211% total ownership, and 70 of the top 100 lineups had total ownership under the average.
Players who Made or Broke the Bank
Kenyan Drake was the highest-scoring player of the contest by a 7 point margin, scoring 24.9 points and making $884k for the 31.6% of lineups that drafted him.
Tight end Juwan Johnson and wideout Chris Olave were the lone bright spots for the Saints, despite pretty mediocre showings.
| Player | Total Earnings | Earnings / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | $884,961.98 | $23.81 | 31.60% | 19.22% | 24.9 |
| Juwan Johnson | $711,564.01 | $60.09 | 10.06% | 3.71% | 12.2 |
| Ravens | $480,183.23 | $32.48 | 12.56% | 4.06% | 10 |
| Justin Tucker | $370,757.87 | $8.30 | 37.96% | 9.75% | 10 |
| Chris Olave | $105,058.02 | $1.53 | 58.22% | 13.16% | 13.1 |
Saints RB Alvin Kamara was the second most drafted player of the contest, coming in at 81.8% ownership. He failed to produce despite being one of just a few healthy offensive threats for the Saints, scoring 9.2 points and losing entrants about $960k.
| Player | Total Earnings | Earnings / Entry | % Drafted | % Cashed | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | ($959,752.04) | ($9.97) | 81.79% | 14.23% | 9.2 |
| Devin Duvernay | ($548,088.02) | ($12.11) | 38.48% | 4.18% | 1.5 |
| Taysom Hill | ($355,610.00) | ($12.49) | 24.21% | 2.28% | 1.12 |
| Isaiah Likely | ($308,534.07) | ($5.16) | 50.78% | 10.88% | 9.4 |
| Andy Dalton | ($265,795.99) | ($6.41) | 35.27% | 6.08% | 11.9 |
| Justice Hill | ($185,970.38) | ($10.97) | 14.42% | 2.02% | 2.9 |
| DeSean Jackson | ($166,248.08) | ($9.36) | 15.10% | 3.07% | 2.6 |
| Wil Lutz | ($154,030.00) | ($8.04) | 16.29% | 3.71% | 7 |
I'll be back tomorrow with my write-up of the results of DraftKings Week 9 Main Slate Milly Maker.